Winners Don’t Draft Running Backs

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Photo: Justin Taylor @between2worlds

Eagles fans were desperate for a wide receiver (Mike Williams or Corey Davis) in the first round of this upcoming draft until Howie filled that need with Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith.

Now, the fans want a running back to get the offense solidified for Carson Wentz. Maybe they’re all drunk on Zeke Elliott’s performance this year behind the best offensive line in the league. Whatever it is, they’re off-base and wrong. Why? Because winners, like that sharply dressed guy above, don’t draft running backs, at least in the first round.

Don’t believe me? Take a look at the draft by position by the last four Super Bowl Champs and the Steelers, because they’re the Steelers, for the past 15 drafts:

DEN Pats PIT BAL SEA
2016 QB N/A DB OL OL
2015 DE DT LB WR N/A
2014 DB DT LB LB N/A
2013 DT N/A LB DB N/A
2012 N/A DE OL LB DE
2011 LB OL DE DB OL
2010 WR/QB DB OL LB OL/DB
2009 RB/DE N/A DE OL LB
2008 OL LB RB QB DE
2007 DE DB LB OL N/A
2006 QB RB WR DT DB
2005 N/A OL TE WR OL
2004 LB DT/TE QB DT DT
2003 OL DE DB LB DB
2002 WR TE OL DB TE

That’s 70 picks. 3 of those 70 first round picks have been running backs. That’s a measly 4.2%. Who were they? They were Knowshon Moreno (Den), Rashard Mendenhall (Pit), Laurence Maroney (NE). No position was selected less often by these franchises. Even tight ends were more frequently selected.

The most common selected positions of these winning franchises were OL (14 picks or 20% of the 69), LB (12 picks or 17%), and DB (11 picks or 16%).

How do the Eagles’ selections fare versus the trends of these franchises?

Eagles
2016 QB
2015 WR
2014 LB
2013 OL
2012 DT
2011 OL
2010 DE
2009 WR
2008 N/A
2007 N/A
2006 DT
2005 DT
2004 OL
2003 DE
2002 DB

They’ve had 13 first round picks in the past 15 years. They’ve taken 3 OL, 3DT, 2DE, 2WR, 1QB, 1LB, and 1DB.

The Eagles are on par with these franchises in their understanding of the importance of Offensive Linemen. The Eagles tend to value defensive line a little more than these comparison franchises. However, the Eagles have two massive positional blind-spots in the first round compared to these teams—DEFENSIVE BACK & LINEBACKERS.

The Eagles have drafted one of each. Marcus Smith in 2014 and Lito Shepherd in 2002. Is it a coincidence that it’s been a few years since the Eagles have had any semblance of consistency at either position? I think not. Winning clubs stress these positions and the Eagles have simply neglected them.

These clubs have proven that you can win without a first round running back. In fact, these clubs have made 31 first round picks since Knowshon Moreno was selected in the first round and NONE HAVE BEEN RUNNING BACKS. Belichick has gone defense 6 out of his last 7 drafts since learning his lesson from Laurence Maroney. Linebackers and Defensive Backs are simply more important, if you look at these winning franchises.

You can want Dalvin Cook all you want. I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed that Howie has a better handle on winning trends in the NFL. I’ll take the best DB on the board at 14 and probably again in the 2nd round or trade down and grab Temple’s Haason Reddick.

Remember, winning franchises don’t draft running backs in the first round. That’s a fact.