HERE’S WHY THE 76ERS SHOULD STAY AT 3RD PICK
Sixers fans, have we never heard “A Bird in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush?
Social medial and talk-radio is abuzz with talk of trading the #3 pick to Sacramento for their #5 and #10 picks.
Two top-ten picks in return for moving two spots sounds enticing. Should it be?
NBA.com did a piece that looked at the odds of getting an All-Star with picks 1 through 8 from 1980 through 2014.
Here is their data:
Pick 1 – 77%
Pick 2 – 34%
Pick 3 – 49%
Pick 4 – 29%
Pick 5 – 31%
Pick 6 – 20%
Pick 7 – 20%
Pick 8 – 11%
Clearly, aside from the top pick, the #3 overall pick has the greatest chance of finding an all-star in the NBA. The number might drop to 47% with Okafor breaking tradition, but it’s still early and I’d still take that 47% over 31% at pick 5 or even worse odds with the 10th pick.
Another study by 82games.com looked at the picks from the years 1989 through 2008 and determined the odds of a star player, role player, bust, etc. Their research corroborated the above-referenced data wherein the #3 overall pick has high enough success rates that the 76ers should stay where they are.
Here are 82games.com historical odds for finding a Star Player, Solid Player, Role Player, Deep Bench Player, Bust, or DNP at different picks:
| Pick | Star | Solid | RoleP | DeepB | Bust | DNP |
| 1 | 70% | 25% | 5% | |||
| 2 | 60% | 25% | 15% | |||
| 3 | 85% | 10% | 5% | |||
| 4 | 60% | 30% | 10% | |||
| 5 | 60% | 15% | 10% | 15% | ||
| 6 | 25% | 30% | 30% | 15% | ||
| 7 | 30% | 40% | 25% | 5% | ||
| 8 | 35% | 15% | 15% | 35% | ||
| 9 | 30% | 10% | 35% | 20% | 5% | |
| 10 | 35% | 25% | 25% | 10% | 5% |
Again, as with the data previously discussed, the #3 pick has far better odds than picks 5 and beyond.
Also worth noting, odds of striking out and finding a bust or deep bench player statistically do not show up until picks 5 through 10.
No thanks.
The historical data is clear. The 76ers should stay at #3 and take the best player available among Fox, Ball, Jackson. Done deal.
Plus, I don’t really want to give the Kings those odds to hit a home run. They need to suck through 2019 so they’ll have tons of ping pong balls in the 2019 draft when the Sixers get the Kings first round pick.