HERE’S WHY THE 76ERS SHOULD STAY AT 3RD PICK

Sixers fans, have we never heard “A Bird in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush?

Social medial and talk-radio is abuzz with talk of trading the #3 pick to Sacramento for their #5 and #10 picks.

Two top-ten picks in return for moving two spots sounds enticing. Should it be?

NBA.com did a piece that looked at the odds of getting an All-Star with picks 1 through 8 from 1980 through 2014.

Here is their data:

Pick 1 – 77%
Pick 2 – 34%
Pick 3 – 49%
Pick 4 – 29%
Pick 5 – 31%
Pick 6 – 20%
Pick 7 – 20%
Pick 8 – 11%

Clearly, aside from the top pick, the #3 overall pick has the greatest chance of finding an all-star in the NBA. The number might drop to 47% with Okafor breaking tradition, but it’s still early and I’d still take that 47% over 31% at pick 5 or even worse odds with the 10th pick.

Another study by 82games.com looked at the picks from the years 1989 through 2008 and determined the odds of a star player, role player, bust, etc. Their research corroborated the above-referenced data wherein the #3 overall pick has high enough success rates that the 76ers should stay where they are.

Here are 82games.com historical odds for finding a Star Player, Solid Player, Role Player, Deep Bench Player, Bust, or DNP at different picks:

Pick Star Solid RoleP DeepB Bust DNP
1 70% 25% 5%
2 60% 25% 15%
3 85% 10% 5%
4 60% 30% 10%
5 60% 15% 10% 15%
6 25% 30% 30% 15%
7 30% 40% 25% 5%
8 35% 15% 15% 35%
9 30% 10% 35% 20% 5%
10 35% 25% 25% 10% 5%

Again, as with the data previously discussed, the #3 pick has far better odds than picks 5 and beyond.

Also worth noting, odds of striking out and finding a bust or deep bench player statistically do not show up until picks 5 through 10.

No thanks.

The historical data is clear. The 76ers should stay at #3 and take the best player available among Fox, Ball, Jackson. Done deal.

Plus, I don’t really want to give the Kings those odds to hit a home run. They need to suck through 2019 so they’ll have tons of ping pong balls in the 2019 draft when the Sixers get the Kings first round pick.

Greg

Mayor of Jawnville. Sports-junkie, writer, observer of the absurd. I rarely wear a suit, but when I do it's a 40R. Juniata Park & North Catholic proud.

About Greg

Mayor of Jawnville. Sports-junkie, writer, observer of the absurd. I rarely wear a suit, but when I do it’s a 40R. Juniata Park & North Catholic proud.

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