INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Schwartz vs. Brady

May the Schwartz Be With Us has been my motto for this Eagles since Carson Wentz went down in the game against the Rams. And, Schwartz hasn’t let us down. His Eagles defense has been exceptional, aside from the Giants game. For the Eagles to win Super Bowl LII, Schwartz in gonna have contain Brady. That begs the questions, how has Schwartz fared against Brady?

As either a Defensive Coordinator or Head Coach, Jim Schwartz has faced Brady 6 times. I am not including a game in 2014 where the Patriots rested players, including Brady, while Schwartz was in Buffalo as Def. Coordinator.

The numbers, at first glance, say that Schwartz hasn’t had his best games against Brady. His record is 1-5 vs. Brady, who has a cumulative QB Rating of 101.95 in those six games. Brady also happens to have 12 TDs and 1 INT in those six games. Yikes!

Position Year Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate
DC 2006 60.7 243 2 0 112.6
DC 2003 54.8 193 1 0 84.5
DC 2003 51.2 201 1 0 73.3
DC 2002 48.4 120 0 1 45.1
HC 2010 77.8 338 4 0 158.3
DC 2014 73 346 4 0 137.9
60.98% 240.2 yd/game 12 1 101.95

Those stats and number have New Englanders all geeked up. There’s a musketfire.com article titled New England Patriots have Had Success Against Jim Schwartz here. And tweets like this one, included in that story, are making the circuit.

Those numbers look great if you’re a Patriots fans so they probably just took them at face value because they fit the narrative that the Patriots offense will have success against the Schwartz-led Eagles defense and they’re Patriots fans so they’re probably lazy bloggers/writers. But, if you dig a little deeper, a different narrative begins to unravel.

Do any of Schwartz’s previous defenses that have faced Brady compare with this year’s Eagles defense, which is top 4 overall and #1 vs. the run?

SCHWARTZ DEFENSE RANKINGS IN YEARS HE FACED BRADY
Year Team Points/Allowed Total Yards/Allowed Rushing Yards/Allowed
2002 TN 11th 10th 2nd
2003 TN 13th 12th 1st
2006 TN 31st 32nd 30th
2010 DET 19th 21st 24th
2014 BUF 4th 11th 11th
2017 PHI 4th 4th 1st

This year’s Eagles team is clearly the best Defense Schwartz has had while facing Brady. They ranked 1st against the rush, and 4th in Total Yards Allowed and Points Allowed. Of Schwartz’s previous teams that faced Brady, his 2002 & 2003 Titans are the closest to this year’s 2017 Eagles because they were also great against the run so that’s what I’ll use for comparison purposes.

What happens when Schwartz has a defense that smothers the run and he faces Brady? A strange picture unfolds–one of Brady mediocrity. Here is how Brady performed against Schwartz defenses that were dominant against the run.

BRADY VS SCHWARTZ DEFENSES COMPARABLE TO THE EAGLES
Position Year Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate
DC 2003 54.8 193 1 0 84.5
DC 2003 51.2 201 1 0 73.3
DC 2002 48.4 120 0 1 45.1
51.47% 171.33 yd/g 2 1 67.63
BRADY  CAREER AVGS   63% 270 yd/g     90.1

Brady’s rating drops over 23 points below his career average. His yards per game is about 100 yards less and his completion percentage is a full 11% lower. In other words, Brady’s stats, when facing a Schwartz defense that has great success stopping the run, fall short of Nick Foles’ career averages.

Don’t take the numbers of Schwartz versus Brady at face value like those New Englanders mentioned above. There’s more to it. When Schwartz has a defense that cannot stop the run, Brady has shredded him. But, when Schwartz’s squads can stop the run, LOOKOUT! Brady has seen much better days and that was against comparable Schwartz defenses not as good as this year’s Eagles.

Luckily for Eagles fans, 2017 just happens to be one of those years where Schwartz’s squad has feasted on most of the rushing attacks they’ve encountered and safely rests high atop the NFL’s rushing defense rankings. This year is also different because Schwartz’s Cox should be all up in Brady’s face.

#FlyEagleFly
#ThanksForReading
#ShareThisSh*t

Greg

Mayor of Jawnville. Sports-junkie, writer, observer of the absurd. I rarely wear a suit, but when I do it's a 40R. Juniata Park & North Catholic proud.

About Greg

Mayor of Jawnville. Sports-junkie, writer, observer of the absurd. I rarely wear a suit, but when I do it's a 40R. Juniata Park & North Catholic proud.
This entry was posted in Eagles. Bookmark the permalink.